E&E NewsNick Juliano
The United States is more secure than most large economies because of new discoveries of oil and natural gas and declining power use driven by policies to promote efficiency, according to a report released today.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Institute for 21st Century Energy today released its first "International Index of Energy Security," which compares factors including fuel imports, energy prices, power generation and carbon dioxide emissions across 75 nations. The effort builds on a risk analysis the institute completed last year for the United States alone, an updated version of which will be released in the coming weeks.
Mexico is the most energy secure among the 25 largest energy users, according to the report, a position it has held for most of the last 30 years. The country's energy security is bolstered by large domestic oil reserves and relatively low per-capita energy use, according to the report.
The United States ranks seventh, with a risk score slightly better than the average member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Its situation has been improving in recent years as new supplies of oil and natural gas are unlocked through the use of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling in shale formations such as the Bakken in North Dakota and the Marcellus in Pennsylvania and surrounding states.
"This is a lesson about technology," said Karen Harbert, president and CEO of the energy institute, at an event this morning unveiling the report.
Overall, average energy security risk has been increasing across the globe, although the gap between the riskiest and least risky countries is falling.
"We are in a much riskier environment, but everybody's risk is getting closer together, which means we're not managing our risk very well," Harbert said.
Energy Information Administration head Adam Sieminski shared optimistic projections on growing U.S. supplies of natural gas, falling oil imports and relatively flat CO2 emissions through 2035, and he said those metrics could improve even beyond EIA's existing projections.
For example, he said, it is possible the United States would become a net exporter of natural gas earlier than the current 2022 projection and that import reliance falls more sharply than currently modeled in scenarios of increased fuel efficiency and expanded access to domestic reserves.
Separately, the consulting firm Deloitte released a report assessing U.S. efforts to achieve energy security, which the report suggested is a more realistic and valuable goal than obtaining "energy independence."
The report notes that the United States already is fairly energy independent except in the transportation sector, which remains heavily reliant on imported oil.
"To say that the United States needs a secure supply of energy really means a secure supply of petroleum," the report notes.
However, achieving that secure supply is hardly an insurmountable obstacle, considering that the largest source of U.S. imports is Canada, a close and stable ally. Not counting imports from Canada and Mexico, energy security would mean addressing about 28 percent of oil imports, or about 10 to 15 percent of the total energy supply.
"It is the diversity, breadth and depth of the U.S. energy supply portfolio that currently 'secures' over 85 percent of our energy supplies," the report says. "How do we enhance the security of the entire portfolio and extend this security to the remaining 10 to 15 percent? Using those same principles: diversity, breadth and depth."
The report lays out several recommendations, including continued support for oil and gas extraction in the United States, Canada and Mexico; greater energy efficiency in transportation and electricity use; expanded use of natural gas in transportation; and support for research into renewable energy, carbon capture and next-generation nuclear technologies.
