Multiple gases contribute to the greenhouse effect that sets Earth’s temperature over geologic time. Small changes in the atmospheric concentration of these gases can lead to changes in temperature that make the difference between ice ages when mastodons roamed the Earth, and the sweltering heat in which the dinosaurs lived.
Two characteristics of atmospheric gases determine the strength of their greenhouse effect.
The first is their ability to absorb energy and radiate it (their “radiative efficiency”). The second is the atmospheric lifetime, which measures how long the gas stays in the atmosphere before natural processes (e.g., chemical reactions) remove it.
These characteristics are incorporated in the Global Warming Potential (GWP), a measure of the radiative effect (i.e. the strength of their greenhouse effect) of each unit of gas (by weight) over a specified period of time, expressed relative to the radiative effect of carbon dioxide (CO2). This is often calculated over 100 years, though it can be done for any time period. Gases with high GWPs will warm the Earth more than an equal amount of CO2 over the same time period. A gas with a long lifetime, but relatively low radiative efficiency, may end up exerting more warming influence than a gas that leaves the atmosphere faster than the time window of interest but has a comparatively high radiative efficiency, and this would be reflected in a higher GWP.
The table below presents atmospheric lifetime and GWP values for major greenhouse gases from the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) released in 2014. These values are periodically updated by the scientific community as new research refines estimates of radiative properties and atmospheric removal mechanisms (sinks) for each gas.
Despite carbon dioxide’s comparatively low GWP among major greenhouse gases, the large human-caused increase in its atmospheric concentration has caused the majority of global warming. Likewise, methane is responsible for a large portion of recent warming despite having a GWP much lower than several other greenhouse gases because emissions have increased drastically.
SourceFifth Assessment Report (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014). | |||
| Greenhouse gas | Chemical formula | Global Warming Potential, 100-year time horizon | Atmospheric Lifetime (years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carbon Dioxide | CO2 | 1 | 100* |
| Methane | CH4 | 25 | 12 |
| Nitrous Oxide | N2O | 265 | 121 |
| Chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) | CCl2F2 | 10,200 | 100 |
| Hydrofluorocarbon-23 (HFC-23) | CHF3 | 12,400 | 222 |
| Sulfur Hexafluoride | SF6 | 23,500 | 3,200 |
| Nitrogen Trifluoride | NF3 | 16,100 | 500 |
* No single lifetime can be given for carbon dioxide because it moves throughout the earth system at differing rates. Some carbon dioxide will be absorbed very quickly, while some will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years.
The table below shows the relative concentrations of these major greenhouse gases and their sources. Some gases (like CO2) are made by both natural and manmade processes, while others (like hydrofluorocarbons) are only the result of human industrial activity. CO2 is typically measured in parts per million because it is 1,000 times more prevalent than the other gases, but is shown as parts per billion in the table for consistency.
NotesAtmospheric concentrations are all shown in parts per billion (ppb). SourceFifth Assessment Report (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, 2014) | |||
| Greenhouse gas | Major sources | Pre-industrial concentration (ppb) | 2011 concentration (ppb) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carbon Dioxide | Fossil fuel combustion; Deforestation; Cement production | 278,000 | 390,000 |
| Methane | Fossil fuel production; Agriculture; Landfills | 722 | 1,803 |
| Nitrous Oxide | Fertilizer application; Fossil fuel and biomass combustion; Industrial processes | 271 | 324 |
| Chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) | Refrigerants | 0 | 0.527 |
| Hydrofluorocarbon-23 (HFC-23) | Refrigerants | 0 | 0.024 |
| Sulfur Hexafluoride | Electricity transmission | 0 | 0.0073 |
| Nitrogen Trifluoride | Semiconductor manufacturing | 0 | 0.00086 |
The Rise of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Notes
This figure shows the monthly mean carbon dioxide measurements at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii since 1958. The red line shows the monthly mean while the black line shows the same after correcting for the average seasonal cycle. The small up and down saw-tooth pattern reflects seasonal changes in the release and uptake of carbon dioxide by plants.
Source
Source: Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends) and Dr. Ralph Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (scrippsco2.ucsd.edu).
*Carbon dioxide is quite stable in Earth’s atmosphere, but individual carbon dioxide molecules are in near constant flux from difference reservoirs, such as the surface ocean, land biota, and the atmosphere. A commonly used estimate for CO2 lifetime is 100 years, but this really only reflects the lifetime of a portion of the atmospheric carbon dioxide reservoir. Some portion has a lifetime of up to 1,000 years (IPCC 2007, FAQs).
