More people moving into Danville than leaving, but more deaths continue population decline (2024)

Danville has seen at least 800 more people move into the city than leave since 2020, but a higher number of deaths than births keeps lowering the overall population, according to the latest data.

“The Danville region has had more people move into it since 2020 than leave, which is a notable change from recent decades,” said Hamilton Lombard, demographer with the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, which released its 2023 population estimates Monday. “But any growth from people moving in has so far been canceled out by the region’s high death rate, in part from having an older population but also from the pandemic.”

Danville’s population decreased by 0.8% 2020 to 2023, from 42,590 to 42,248 as of July 1, 2023 — a difference of 342, according to figures from the center.

The city saw a net migration — or the number of people coming in compared to that for those moving away — of 815 since 2020. But there were 1,157 more deaths than births, which led to the overall decline, according to the center’s figures.

It’s the second year in a row that the center has reported a rise in the number of new residents compared to those who left the city.

“That’s a change from the past, when the city had more people moving out than moving in,” Lombard said. “That’s changing.”

But with an older population, Danville can expect deaths to continue to outnumber births for years to come, even as more young people arrive and make the city home, he said.

“More deaths is going to be a drag on births for a while,” Lombard said.

Danville’s median age is 41 (taking into account students at Averett University), compared to 39 for Virginia as a whole, Lombard said. That means half of people in the city are older than 41 and the other half are younger.

From 2020-22, Danville saw 509 more people move into the city than move out. But 751 more deaths than births led to the population decrease during those years, according to Weldon Cooper figures from last year.

Danville’s population as of July 1, 2022, was 42,348 — down by 242 people from the U.S. Census Bureau count of 42,590 people in 2020. According to those figures, the city’s population declined by 100 overall from 2022 to 2023.

A number of factors has attracted more young people to the area, including the upcoming Caesars Virginia casino hotel resort, more job-producing manufacturers locating to the region and a rise in remote work since 2020, Lombard said. The latter, in addition to a lower cost of living, has especially contributed to an increase in people moving to smaller metro areas, he added.

More young people coming to Danville is a sign that the city has made the right moves in its efforts to improve downtown and attract more industry to the Dan River Region, City Manager Ken Larking said.

“To me, that means the investments we’ve made over the past few years to make Danville a great place to call home are paying off,” Larking said Monday.

In addition, the net migration of 815 people to Danville — with its lack of a large city nearby — is “especially remarkable,” Larking said.

“Danville is not adjacent to a large metro area, so we have had to be more creative to encourage growth,” he said.

What is happening in Danville is reflective of what’s going on elsewhere in rural areas — more deaths than births, said Clark Casteel, president and CEO of the Danville Regional Foundation.

He also pointed to the trend of more people moving out of urban areas and into smaller cities and rural places, which seems to be also benefiting Danville.

“This is exactly what this region has banked on for years,” Casteel said, adding that officials in the region made moves to bring in more jobs, add amenities and improve the quality of life.

“It strikes me as good news that we’ve got more people moving in than moving out,” he said.

More people continue to leave Virginia for other states, Lombard pointed out, with much of the out-migration to other states reflected in Fairfax County in Northern Virginia. That county saw more population decline in 2023, according to the center.

Moreover, “some leaving Northern Virginia are staying in Virginia, which has helped fuel growth in smaller metro areas, particularly Richmond and Winchester,” Lombard said.

One indication of more young people coming to the Danville area is a rise in the number of births in the city, Lombard said. But with a higher number of people in Danville in their 60s than in their 20s, “it could take a while to balance out that age distribution,” he said.

To come up with the population estimates, the center used local and administrative data including the number of driver’s licenses, home constructions, births, deaths, prison populations, college students and U.S. Census information, Lombard said.

As for Pittsylvania County, its population fell from 60,501 in 2020 to 59,171 in 2023 — a 2.2% decline. It had 1,112 more deaths than births and a net migration of -218, meaning 218 more people left the county than those who decided to move in and call it home.

Pittsylvania County’s median age is 48.1.

The region as a whole, including Danville and Pittsylvania County combined, had 2,259 more deaths than births and had a net migration of 462 more people who came in than left.